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{"id":6740,"date":"2024-02-08T00:12:15","date_gmt":"2024-02-08T00:12:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/celticunderground.net\/?p=6740"},"modified":"2024-02-08T10:26:08","modified_gmt":"2024-02-08T10:26:08","slug":"how-to-player-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/how-to-player-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"How to player trade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>To undertake a player trading model exceptionally, clubs need to understand the market and have the resources and staff.\u00a0 In the past <a href=\"https:\/\/celticunderground.net\/2012-opportunity-missed\/\">two<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/celticunderground.net\/trading-up-or-treading-water\/\">articles<\/a> we\u2019ve looked at the key points in the evolution of player trading and how some clubs have used the strategy to grow whilst we have been treading water.\u00a0 This latter opinion is based around the lack of any clear strategy in our player purchasing over the past 12 years.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This summer was one of the worst windows.\u00a0 We looked like that bit on The Great British Bake Off where the contestants are given the ingredients but no cooking time, no mixing directions and if they don\u2019t know how the finished baked item should look, the outcome can be a mess.\u00a0 This past summer window looked like someone had been given a starter kit in player trading ingredients without the slightest idea of how to mix them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So what makes a good player trading model?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Know your buyers.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Simplistically, our market is about 40 &#8211; 50 clubs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bottom 14 EPL can spend \u00a310-\u00a330m for our players and we have seen decent level European clubs in other big 5 leagues (Union Berlin, Leverkusen, Celta) give us \u00a34m-\u00a312m for our players recently. Previously Lyon gave us \u00a320m but for a player who was highly rated in France. That is our market.\u00a0 If we are to sell to these clubs we need to have what they want.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Know what they want?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are going to make high value sales to clubs, you must get proper talent and know what age those clubs buy at (23.9 in England, 24.1 in Spain). This should lead you to purchase players aged around 19 &#8211; 21. You also need to know where they like their players to come from.\u00a0 Obviously, they want the best, but that will also be skewed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Where do I find the players? \u2013 Worldwide!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cAt the very top, football production is the same.&nbsp; The best players seem to be interchangeable across leagues.\u201d \u2013 <\/em>The Numbers Game<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the end of 2022 the South American nations had the following players in the big 5 leagues:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Brazil \u2013 92<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Argentina \u2013 57<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Uruguay \u2013 25<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Colombia \u2013 20<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Chile \u2013 8<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Paraguay \u2013 6<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ecuador \u2013 6<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Venezuela \u2013 3<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><u>Peru \u2013 1<\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><u>Total &#8211; 218<\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>From Asia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>South Korea \u2013 8<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><u>Japan \u2013 17 <\/u>(of which 8 are in Germany)<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><u>Total \u2013 25<\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>So, there are 40-50 clubs willing (and able) to pay us \u00a325m &#8211; \u00a330m for players because they don\u2019t have the luxury of bringing in a 20 year old and giving him 80, 90 games over 2 years to get him up to EPL level.\u00a0 They need the finished product but they have their own prejudices about where that player should come from \u2013 Africa and South America are their favourite continents, but in the last 12 months we sign Idaguchi and \u00a3800k Kwon from the Korean 2<sup>nd<\/sup> Division.\u00a0 Fine if the plan is to retain them and they are not part of the player trading model.\u00a0 Unfortunately, they\u2019ve not been good enough to play for our first team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>How do I find the players?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For too many clubs, player acquisition is about sitting around and waiting for agents to notify you that their player is in the mood for a move and we are then in a competitive waiting game environment with clubs of our size and below across Europe.  To avoid this beauty parade, we need high quality scouts situated in the country who have the ability to spot talent early. When you are acquiring at this level there is very little game time to review and therefore having boots on the ground matter.\u00a0 You need scouts living and working in key markets, visiting youth games and every match possible but most importantly than all of that they need to have the expertise to spot future potential within a very brief viewing window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Time is not on our side<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we want to acquire quality, we need to act quickly.&nbsp; We need high quality scouts who can spot a player after very limited appearances.&nbsp; If we wait too long and the player really can become a \u00a330m talent inside 2 years, someone else from a sexier league or a league with deeper pockets will spot him.&nbsp; Also, we have often accompanied a new signing with a press release about how long we\u2019ve tracked him \u2013 that\u2019s NOT a positive!&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It isn\u2019t a positive for a player trading club to say that they\u2019ve been tracking the player for 3 years (unless he was 14, 15).\u00a0 If we identified someone 3 years ago, everyone\u2019s had the chance to look at him.  If he\u2019s still at the same club and available for under \u00a33m 3 years later then he is highly unlikely to ever become much more than a \u00a33m player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Spend wisely and know squad availability.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we have \u00a35m to spend on the midfield, and the manager plays 3 in the middle and we already have 4 \u201c1<sup>st<\/sup> team ready\u201d midfielders, then spend all \u00a35m on one player.&nbsp; If you spend that \u00a35m on 3 players when there\u2019s one spot, none get the requisite game time, none will develop, and you have just wasted \u00a35m.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We still haven\u2019t learned our lessons. 10 years ago we were playing a lone striker, maximum 2 in a game, we have 5 guys contracted to the club and bring in Scepovic.\u00a0 We end last season with Hatate, McGregor, O\u2019Reilly, Mooy, Iwata.\u00a0 5 Players for the 3 midfield slots.\u00a0 Mooy retires so we now have 4 for 3.\u00a0 We then sign Holm, Bernardo and Kwon.\u00a0 With O\u2019Reilly &amp; McGregor &amp; Hatate the starters, subject to multiple injuries, the manager will nearly always play 2 of the 3.  We therefore have 5 players for 1 position, virtually guaranteeing a minimum of 2 failures and no space for academy players to come through, even if they are good enough.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Be aware of football inflation.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There will be more on us buying too many cheap players in the next article, but we have been stuck in a rut of \u00a31.5 &#8211; \u00a33.5m player purchases for DECADES.&nbsp; Stuart Slater cost \u00a32m.&nbsp; Alan Stubbs cost \u00a33.5m!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Standstill budget<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019ll be MUCH more detail in the next article but In last 10 yrs:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Ajax have spent \u20ac410m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Received \u20ac1,022m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Profit \u20ac612m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Celtic have spent \u20ac197m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Profit \u20ac36m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Scatter gun<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>We have paid for 95 players and sold 49 for money.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ajax have paid for 68 and sold (for money) 95 (Academy a big player here).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Purchases below \u20ac3m<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Ajax &#8211; 20<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Celtic &#8211; 56<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Below \u00a31m<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Ajax &#8211; 4<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Celtic \u2013 17<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The January windows are always difficult.\u00a0 Clubs with a chance of promotion, winning a trophy or relegation will be unwilling to sell even a fringe player and so the fact that this January was almost non-existent for Celtic was no surprise.\u00a0 Transfer activity across Europe is largely driven by the EPL.\u00a0 Last year, at January, around 10 clubs felt they may go down.\u00a0 This year it\u2019s 4-5 so panic buying was limited.\u00a0 Moreover, the FFP punishments to Everton and Forest have made the mid to lower level EPL clubs very fearful of the consequences of overspending.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The understandable challenges of January therefore made the failures of the summer even more problematic.\u00a0 Whilst this article sets out some basics of a player trading model, it is important to remember that it is not about buying and selling players for the sake of it.\u00a0 It is about acknowledging that modern football is very expensive.\u00a0 That a successful team will always have wealthier clubs coming in for their players.\u00a0 It is about understanding that and ensuring that you maximise the revenues to be generated for the betterment of your own team.\u00a0 It is not just about trading\u2026it is about trading up.\u00a0 Yes there is a ceiling for us \u2013 we may have the money to buy a \u00a315m player but we do not have the budget for his wages, but we should not still be buying in the bargain basement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I started this series of articles talking about the opportunity created by the death of Rangers, but there was a fear too, a fear that had merit.\u00a0 After their death, 10k \u2013 15k \u201cOld Firm fans\u201d stopped attending Celtic Park.\u00a0 Would TV revenue follow suit?\u00a0 Player trading evolved from the baseball Moneyball story of Billy Bean and the Oakland A\u2019s but as Beane says \u2013<em> \u201cwe were in a position where we could try anything and no matter what happened we were probably not going to be any worse off.\u201d<\/em>\u00a0 Often only desperation creates the perfect circumstances for change and in 2012 we were not desperate; we were fearful and that latter emotion often creates very conservative decision making.\u00a0 We had reached a fork in the road post Seville and stopped at the precipice when debt hit \u00a318m.\u00a0 Our neighbours continued and went bust.\u00a0 As stated before, prudence trumped all.\u00a0 As The Numbers Game sums up the problem prudence can create \u2013 \u201c<em>True innovation rarely springs from individuals inside the clubhouse.\u00a0 Outsiders can ask questions, they can query how things are done and they see opportunities insiders don\u2019t.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are no outsiders at the very top at Celtic.&nbsp; The insiders make what they feel are the best decisions.&nbsp; They think they\u2019re good at player trading and of course, in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is King and from within Scotland, we look really good at it, but as the numbers will show (and there\u2019s a taste above when comparing with Ajax), we are really not very good at all.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If we have \u00a35m to spend on the midfield, and the manager plays 3 in the middle and we already have 4 \u201c1st team ready\u201d midfielders, then spend all \u00a35m on one player.\u00a0 If you spend that \u00a35m on 3 players when there\u2019s one spot, none get the requisite game time, none will develop, and you have just wasted \u00a35m.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":6472,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_options":[]},"categories":[3,598],"tags":[45,149,94,187,153,150,454,137],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/Screenshot-2022-12-02-at-15.48.32-1.png","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3Lnym-1KI","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6740"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6740"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6743,"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6740\/revisions\/6743"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6472"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/celticunderground.net\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}